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Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 29 May 2018

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BULLION
Recently, the World Gold Council reported a 7% drop in global demand in the first quarter of 2018 to 973.5 tonnes, the lowest since the first quarter of 2008, as investments fell 27% on the precious metal to 287 tonnes from 383 tonnes in the first quarter of 2017.The Gold is in perfect uptrend Currently Gold is moving sideways The Gold is now trading in overbought level.The oscillator is showing BUY signal but has moved past its recent high with good volume points to a positive break out .The oscillator is showing BUY signal For short term The current position is buy and closed above 1 month high with volume signals up breakout. Support for the Gold is 30900. Immediate resistance for Gold is 31500.

ENERGY
Crude oil price continued its decline strongly to reach the next target at 67.22 and settles there and we need to monitor the price behaviour at this level as breaking it will extend oil price losses to reach 65.50 on the near term basis while its stability will push the price to start recovery attempts that target testing 69.35 level initially.

Natural gas price succeeded to form strong bullish attack yesterday by moving away from 2.910 support line to approach the initial target at 3.050 noting that the continuation of the positive pressures will push the price to surpass 38.2%.

Base Metals
Threemonth base metals prices on the London Metal Exchange were mixed on the morning of Wednesday May 23, with nickel and lead prices down by 0.4% and 1.4% respectively while copper was off by 0.5% at $6,929 per tonne aluminium and tin are both up by 0.2% and zinc is up by 0.5%.Volume on the LME has been average with 5,074 lots traded as of 6.56am London time.

SPICES
Jeer rates hovered near the psychological 16000 mark. Markets found some immediate support at the lower levels as traders anticipate the demand that had slackened for last few weeks could start rising in coming days. Good monsoon reports had further capped the upside. Traders too anticipate further fall to be limited as prices have fallen a lot over last few months. The demand for the new crop is expected to rise at these lower levels in coming days.
Turmeric kept trading with high volatility as prices found support near the 7000-7200 mark. Profit booking at the higher levels amidst reports of good monsoon being beneficial for the new crop sowing next month onwards kept pressure on the prices.

OILSEEDS
Prices failed to take any clear direction for Mentha oil as traders expect the harvesting activities to pick up in coming weeks. New crop arrivals could put pressure on the prices. Rising demand on the export front amidst low arrivals had been supporting the market of late. However good crop sowing reports limited the uptrend. The arrivals of the new crop in coming weeks could limit the uptrend.
Soya oil faced resistance in moving upwards although buyers entered frequently after small dips. Prices have risen lately mainly on bullish cues from global markets and rumours of duty hike in edible oils. The USDA report released last to last week was perceived as neutral from price movement perspective therefore with futures currently surfacing at higher levels possibility for a long lasting upside rally seems lesser at least for next few days

GUAR COMPLEX
No strong movement was noted for Guar as Guar failed to gather momentum as the uptrend was limited by good and before time arrival of monsoon reports. with prices finding short term support near the psychological 8000 mark. Normal monsoon and its early arrival predictions by IMD had kept pressure on prices. Traders however anticipate present rates to be on lower side with strong further fall in prices being ruled out.

OTHERS
Rmseed ended the session on strong note yesterday but weak tone in soybean capped the upside From a broader perspective bullish outlook soybean and palm oil higher import duty on mustard oil lowering arrivals and drop in the crop acreage shall keep the downside in check. Traders anticipate Rmseed prices to firm up further in the near term.

As per latest reports from Cotton Association of India (CAI) Indian production for 2017-18 has been lowered by 5 lakh bales of 170 kg each to 362 lakh bales. The reasons being crop damage from severe pink boll worm infestation and lower rains in some areas. Total supply is estimated at 412 lakh bales.

RMSEED
The primary trend of RMSEED is bearish for long term.From last couple of trading weeks market is trading with positive note but found enough resistance of 4000 level. We can expecting that market can go down from higher level as the current level acted as a strong supply zone. Currently Rmseed is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported by good volume. Market can face immediate support at the level of 3980, while Resistance near the level of4040. One can make sell position below the support level of 3980 for the target of 3840 with stop loss of 4045.

MENTHA OIL
Overall trend of the Menthaoil is bearish for medium to long term.Currently Menthaoil is in strong downtrend with good momentum and the trend is supported by good volume and open interest.The oscillator is showing sell signal For short term to mid term basis. Immidiate Support for the Menthaoil place at the level of1115 while market can face the resistance near the level of 1150.

Zinc
From last couple of trading weeks market is trading in range between the level of 210 to 205 with the negative sentiment supported by 100 days moving average. And recently market broken its up trend channel on its hourly chart indicating bearish trend from short term to mid term basis. It is having important support at the level of 206.50 while resistance place at the level of 207.50. One can make sell position below the support level of 206.30 for the target of 203.30 with stop loss of 207.50

Natural Gas
The primary trend of Natural Gas is bullish and market is continuously making new highs supported by the 200 days moving average. On its daily chart market is forming bullish flag pattern indicating positive trend in near term to mid term basis. Relative strength index showing positive movement in sustaining above the level 60 supporting bullish trend. Near term resistance place at the level of 203 while market can face the support at the level of 197. One can make buy position above the resistance level for the target of 21
EURINR

Last week EURINR Jun Futures started the week on negative note and after that it witnessed choppy movement for the most part of the week. On last day of the week, we saw sharp bearish movement in it and it closed at 79.7175 with the overall loss of 1.14% on weekly basis. Technically for this week, we can expect downside movement in as it sustaining below the major support level breakout of 80.2600 with the negative RSI.

For this week, if it breaks the level of 79.3050 then it can test the level of 78.7025 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 79.6125

USDINR
Last week USDINR Jun Futures started the week on positive note and made a high of 68.7450 on Thursday. On last day of the week, we saw sharp bearish movement in it and it closed at 68.0000 with the overall loss of 0.45% on weekly basis. Technically it formed Dark Cloud Cover candlestick pattern on weekly charts & for this week, we can expect downside movement in it.For this week, if it breaks the level of 67.5300 then it can test the level of 67.0150 during the week. One can make sell position in it by maintaining a SL 67.8825

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