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Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 22 Jan 2019

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BULLION
Gold futures were down 0.63% at $1,286.65 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday having briefly risen as high as $1,300.35 earlier in the session. The Labour Department reported that US employers hired the most workers in 10 months in December while boosting wages suggesting a sustained strength in the economy that could soothe concerns of a sharp slowdown in growth

ENERGY
Crude oil posted solid gains in the first week of 2019 trading despite rising concerns that the China-US trade war will lead to a global economic slowdown. For the week the US benchmark gained 6.57%. Global benchmark Brent crude was up $1.46, or 2.61% to end at $57.41 a barrel. It jumped 9.98% for the week.
Natural gas finished lower last week after almost wiping out the entire winter rally. The selling started on Monday with a gap lower opening and continued till Thursday.

Base Metals
Copper prices were under pressure last week after a surprise cut to Apple’s sales forecast in China pointed to slowing growth in the country and a measure of Chinese manufacturing activity fell into contraction territory also raised concerns among traders.Zinc ended the week up 0.33%while at MCX it closed down by 1.29%.

SPICES
Jeera was marginally down amid lack of trading cues. Markets have been finding buyers’ support of late. Lower temperature in growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan have pressured prices in recent weeks but with offers turning quite cheaper and sowing prospects over last year decreasing market is likely to resume upward trend once mandis resume trading after the New Year holidays.
Lower rains in growing areas amidst apprehensions of falling yields could support prices for Turmeric in future. Arrivals remain lower at these low levels as traders were not willing to sell at these lower levels. Turmeric posted a decent recovery after a weak morning session.

OILSEEDS
Technically buying interest shall remain healthy for next few sessions and this will be fundamentally supported through lower Demat inventories at warehouses and limited number of daily arrivals. Mentha oil posted a decent rise as a result and except some profit taking we expect trend to remain strong as of now.
January Soya oil at NCDEX is expected to trade between 725-740 price band during this week with a positive bias. Closure of most international markets due to New Year holidays shall continue limiting the upward trend for few more sessions

GUAR COMPLEX
Cheapening offers and lower arrivals of new crop amidst prospects of fall in sowing area will be attracting speculative buying in the derivatives in coming days. With low rains reported in West Rajasthan and excess rains reported in East Rajasthan this year market sources believe both these factors to be damaging for the crop. Guar market seems to consolidate and finding buying support now.

OTHERS
Downside seems to be limited for next few weeks as arrivals will decrease significantly against cheapening offers. Bullish tone in palm oil will be positive for the commodity. Palm oil influences RM seed oil which ultimately impacts the direction of RM seed prices.
Soybean posted decent gains due to limited arrivals in mandis and lack of any bearish trigger on global front. The USDA has downgraded domestic ending stock estimate in its October report. Talks of possible damage in Maharashtra region shall be keeping prospects of price rise moving forward.

Last week, EURINR Jan Futures started the week on positive note but after that it witnessed choppy movement for the remaining part of the week. It made a low of 81.0000 during the week and closed at 81.2975 with the overall loss of 0.20 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it.

For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 81.3000 it can test the level of 81.7975 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 80.9475

Last week, USDINR Jan Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the most part of the week. It made a high of 71.4775 during the week and closed at 71.2350 with the overall gain of 0.52 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it consolidating above the trend line breakout with the positive RSI and for this week, we can expect upside movement in it.
For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 71.6000 it can test the level of 72.0975 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 71.2975

Last Week Crude Oil Feb Futures opened at 3646 and made high of 3872. It closed at 3854 with the overall gain of 5.15 per cent on weekly basis. Technically Crude Oil trading on higher levels from last 4 week and also broke the major resistance level of 3800 and also closed above the same. For this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.
For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 3920 it can test the level of 3999 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 3859.

Last week Lead Jan Futures opened at 140.05 and made a high of 142.75 during the week. It closed at 141.85 with the overall gain of 1.29 per cent on weekly basis. Technically lead is taking support from the level of 136 on also broke the major resistance level of 140. For this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.

For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 142.90 it can test the level of 144.90 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 141.80
Last week, GUARGUM5 Feb Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the most part of the week. It made a high of 8768 during the week and closed at 8636 with the overall gain of 4.75 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it recovering from lower level and also made Bullish Harami Pattern on weekly chart. For this week, we can expect upside movement in it.

For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 8850 it can test the level of 9050 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 8695
Last week, SOYABEAN Feb Futures started the week on positive note and continued the same for the most part of the week. It made a high of 3815 during the week and closed at 3806 with the overall gain of 5 per cent on weekly basis. Technically it is in bullish trend and trading in overbought zone of RSI. For this week, we can expect further upside movement in it.

For this week, traders can adopt buying from the lower level strategy in it and above the level of 3850 it can test the level of 3940 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 3798.
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